Thus, since we have resolved on utilizing decimal odds, punters are required to subtract 1 by the value of the odds they are allowed to opt for. The next parameter we will focus on is P, which is used in order to represent the likelihood of your stake to become a winning one.

When it comes to Q, however, it reflects the chances of your stake to become a losing one. Hence, in our case, the value of Q would stand at 0. In other words, football lovers might subtract the probability of success from one, so that they could get the probability of failure.

Now, if we return to the figures we already provided, the equation will look like this: 2 x 0. In other words, according to the Kelly Criterion, in this case, football lovers should stake 0. The fact that the value we have eventually got is positive indicates that you will enjoy an edge, meaning that you will have the chance to reap larger rewards.

Many knowledgeable football punters consider that the Kelly Criterion is heads and shoulders above a good deal of the other staking methods due to the fact that with this betting method, the risk which might occur is significantly smaller.

Contrary to what most people believe, the Kelly Criterion might turn out to be quite demanding due to the fact that soccer lovers should make sure that their calculations are accurate as otherwise, they might end up with an exhausted bankroll in a few ticks.

One of the most essential things we should highlight is that football devotees should make sure that they are conversant with the term expected value. Those of you who are not aware of this term should commit to their mind that when the likelihood of their stake to become a winning one is greater than the implied probability of the odds, this would mean that the expected value is positive.

In this specific case, the value of the odds will stand at 2. As likely as not, you might be slightly bewildered at the moment why we are telling you all these things. One of the most essential things football lovers should commit to their mind is that the only way to make sure that the Kelly Criterion will bring them the desired results is to go for stakes which promise to bring positive value.

It is safe to say that value is subjective due to the fact that soccer bettors have different standpoints about the likelihood of their stake to become a winning one. Still, gambling enthusiasts should remember that while they are making up their mind about the stake they should make, they are advised to bet at odds the value of which will suffice to make up for the risk they should take.

This is precisely where the Kelly Criterion comes into play. Thus, as long as the value you have eventually got is negative, this should hint you that you should abstain from making such a stake, even if you consider that it stands a good chance to become a winning one.

Hence, according to the Kelly Criterion, eventually, we will get Since the result we have ultimately got is negative, this should indicate that it would be a better idea if we abstain from making such a stake simply because the odds are not high enough to compensate for the risk we will need to take.

We hope that you have managed to figure out why so many soccer lovers tend to turn the Kelly Criterion to their good account during their sports betting session. Beyond the shadow of a doubt, this football betting method might turn out to be the best tool when you are unsure which is the most advantageous move in this situation.

Irrespective of the fact that the Kelly Criterion comes with so many advantages , soccer bettors should also make sure that they are aware of its flaws as well. As likely as not, one of the main reasons why gamblers decide in favor of this football betting method is that it can easily be described as one of the most uncomplicated ways to figure out what portion of your bankroll you should consider staking.

Despite the fact that at first glance, it might seem to you that the method is quite demanding, football lovers should rest easy that once they have managed to memorize the components of the formula and the manner in which they should employ them, they will figure out that the whole procedure is quite straightforward.

Best of all, gamblers are not required to possess a mathematical savvy in order to make the calculations which will undoubtedly appeal to many punters.

Unlike many of the other betting methods, the Kelly Criterion allows for the size of your bankroll. In essence, when you are making up your mind about the staking plan which will help you achieve your goals, you should make sure that it is grounded on the amount of money you have intended for gambling purposes.

As likely as not, one of the biggest assets of making use of the Kelly Criterion is that it helps you to make up your mind about the theoretical value of the stake you are intent on making. It is fair to say that this is a major advantage due to the fact that football lovers will have the chance to find the golden middle between safeguarding their bankroll and increasing it.

One of the best things about the Kelly Criterion remains that thanks to it, football bettors will have the chance to optimize their profit due to the fact that they simply need to make more substantial stakes when the value is higher and vice versa, to make smaller stakes when the value they are offered is lower.

When it comes to the merits of this football betting method, we should not forget to mention the fact that gamblers will have the chance to figure out whether they should make a stake or not with a single glance at the expected value.

Thus, as long as the value is negative, this should serve as a red flag that you should forbear from making such a stake. Football lovers who are intent on making use of the Kelly Criterion should be aware of the fact that this betting method has its flaws as well.

Perhaps, one of the hardest things soccer lovers need to do is to estimate the probability of their wager to become a winning one accurately. Thus, as long as you fail to do so at least reasonably well, you will not be able to calculate the amount you need to stake properly, meaning that thus, you will put your bankroll in jeopardy.

Other than that, many knowledgeable football lovers reckon that at times, this betting method might turn out to be quite aggressive.

In other words, sometimes, gambling enthusiasts might be compelled to make some quite substantial stakes, which is why many punters are reluctant to utilize the method. The good news is that football bettors can deal with this problem, provided that they are more heedful when they are making their assessments.

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There is no secret equation for predicting the outcome of soccer matches. Not an equation that ignores the odds, in any case. If you want to create your own The totals market (often referred to as the Over/Under) usually refers to the combined total of goals scored by both sides, but individual team totals and first The winning formula focuses on determining the number of goals Select a match you want to bet on and gather the necessary data for each team: Soccer bet winning formula

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They are most likely to be behind and will surely be pushing for a late equaliser. Unless they are more than one goal behind of course. Choosing which player to pick is even more difficult. How do you know which players will even be on the pitch at the end of the match?

Strikers are more likely to score but are also more likely to have been substituted. Do you pick a player that starts the match or do you go for a super sub? Avoid this market like the plague. The bookmakers often give good odds in order to tempt punters to waste their money.

Don't be one of these mugs. Not just content with making you pick the final result at the end of a match, the bookmakers invented this little gem in which you have to guess the outcome at half time as well.

This is simply a way of increasing their margins. To show just how big their margins are lets take a look at an example. Now to do this we need to turn each set of odds into a percentage chance of happening.

Just like before to do this we simply convert the fractional odds in decimal odds and then divide this figure into The higher the profit margin the harder it is for punters to profit.

And they are. The bookmaker knows exactly what he's doing and don't get fooled into thinking otherwise. This market is the most profitable for several reasons which I will go into later.

As the name suggests this form of betting originated in Asia. It all started when a group of high staking Asian backers requested a draw no bet wager meaning that if the match finished in a draw then all bets were void. Due to the money on offer the bookmakers relented but the demands got even more complicated, such as half my money back if it's a draw, and a whole new method of betting was established.

At first this betting revolution was confined to Asia but eventually it filtered down into bookmaking world wide. As such it is becoming more mainstream, but still very few people understand let alone take advantage of it. To put it simply in the Asian Handicap market the team perceived to be the less likely winner of a match is given a head start, commonly termed as the handicap.

Imagine Liverpool are playing Tottenham at Anfield. Now Liverpool would be strong favourites and so the Asian handicap may give Tottenham a 1 goal head start. If the game was to end in a draw then after the handicap of one goal has been added to Tottenham's score the result would be a Tottenham win.

Liverpool win by 2 or more goals Our bet is a winner Liverpool win by exactly 1 goal Our bet is void and our stake is returned. Liverpool draw or lose Our bet is a loser. Tottenham win or draw Our bet is a winner Tottenham lose by exactly 1 goal Our bet is void and our stake is returned Tottenham lose by 2 or more goals Our bet is a loser.

This is just one simple example. The handicap can range from 0 goals up to 3 and goes up in increments of a quarter. I will now explain all the possible handicaps and their impact on the match scenarios.

The classic way is to simply apply the relevant handicap to each side in decimal format:. Note: Don't get confused and think in the above example that Manchester City start on one goal AND Arsenal start on -1 goal. The handicap is simply giving you two different view points.

You can either take the view that Manchester City start on 1 goal and Arsenal on 0 OR you can take the view that Manchester City start on 0 goals and Arsenal start on The full ball handicaps are the easiest to understand so lets start with them.

Simply put, a club will be given either a 0,1,2 or 3 goal head start. In this scenario at the end of the game after the handicap has been taken into account if the team you backed has won then you win your bet. If you team lost then you lose your bet.

And finally if the game ends up in a draw your bet is void and you get your money back. This essentially means there is no handicap. The bookmaker considers both team equals and this is just like a regular fixed odds bet except with the added bonus of getting your money back in the event of a draw.

Man Utd wins the match All bets are winners Man Utd draws the match All bets are void Man Utd loses the match All bets are losers.

Arsenal wins the match All bets are winners Arsenal draws the match All bets are void Arsenal loses the match All bets are losers.

Wins by two or more goals All bets on this selection are winners. Wins by one goal All bets on this selection are void and refunded to the backer. Draws or loses All bets on this selection are losers. Wins or draws All bets on this selection are winners Loses by 1 goal All bets on this selection are void and refunded.

Loses by two or more goals All bets on this selection are losers. Aston Villa win by two or more goals All bets are winners Aston Villa win by exactly 1 goal All bets are void. Aston Villa Draw or lose the match All bets are losers.

Reading win or draw the match All bets are winners Reading lose by exactly 1 goal All bets are void. Reading lose by two or more goals All bets are losers. Wins by three or more goals All bets on this selection are winners. Wins by exactly two goals All bets on this selection are void and refunded to the backer.

Wins by one, draws or loses All bets on this selection are losers. Loses by exactly one goal, draws or wins All bets on this selection are winners Loses by exactly 2 goals All bets on this selection are void and refunded. Loses by three or more goals All bets on this selection are losers.

Tottenham win by three or more goals All bets are winners Tottenham win by exactly two goals All bets are void. Tottenham win by one goal, draw or lose the match All bets are losers. Derby lose by one goal, draw or win the match All bets are winners Derby lose by exactly two goals All bets are void.

Derby lose by three or more goals All bets are losers. This is normally the biggest handicap you will see at a bookmakers and is only reserved for cup games when a premiership team plays a team from the lower divisions.

Wins by four or more goals All bets on this selection are winners. Wins by exactly three goals All bets on this selection are void and refunded to the backer.

Wins by either 2 goals or one goal, draws or loses All bets on this selection are losers. Loses by either two goals or one goal, draws or wins All bets on this selection are winners Loses by exactly three goals All bets on this selection are void and refunded. Liverpool win by four or more goals All bets are winners Liverpool win by exactly three goals All bets are void.

Liverpool win by two goals or one goal, draw or lose the match All bets are losers. Enfield lose by two goals or one goal, draw or win the match All bets are winners Enfield lose by exactly three goals All bets are void. Enfield lose by four or more goals All bets are losers.

The second type of handicaps involve halves e. With a half ball line there is no chance of getting your stake back like there was with the full ball lines. Just like a regular fixed odds bet you either win your bet or you lose your bet.

However with the Asian handicaps you have a better scope of options. Once again to help you understand this fully lets go through some example of the half ball lines. Wins by any score All bets on this selection are winners.

Draws All bets on this selection are losers. Loses by any score All bets on this selection are losers. Draws All bets on this selection are winners. Tottenham win by any score All bets on this selection are winners. Draw All bets on this selection are losers. Tottenham lose by any score All bets on this selection are losers.

Blackburn win by any score All bets on this selection are winners. Draw All bets on this selection are winners. Blackburn lose by any score All bets on this selection are losers.

Wins by exactly one goal, draws or loses the match All bets on this selection are losers. Arsenal win by two or more goals All bets are winners. Arsenal win by exactly one goal, draw or lose the match All bets are losers. Everton lose by exactly one goal, draw or win the match All bets are winners.

Everton lose by 2 or more goals All bets are losers. Wins by either two goals or one goal, draws or loses the match All bets on this selection are losers. Loses by either two goals or one goal, draws or loses the match All bets on this selection are winners.

Liverpool win by three or more goals All bets are winners. Arsenal win by either two goals or one goal, draw or lose the match All bets are losers. Luton lose by either two goals or one goal, draw or win the match All bets are winners.

Luton lose by three or more goals All bets are losers. The final type of handicap the bookmakers use are the quarter and three-quarter balls e. This bet is slightly more complicated and involves your stake being split into 2 and placed on the nearest full and half ball handicap.

For example if the handicap you placed a bet on was 0. As such the bookmakers use a slightly different way of expressing this line. For example a 0. Wins All bets are deemed winners Draws half the stake is considered void and is refunded on this.

The other half of the stake is classed as a loser. Loses All bets are settled as losers. Wins All bets are deemed winners Draws half the stake is classified as a winner. The other half is considered void and is refunded to the backer.

Newcastle win the match All bets on this selection are deemed winners. Newcastle draw the match Half the stakes are refunded on this selection. Newcastle lose the match All bets on this selection are settled as losers. Man City win the match All bets on this selection are deemed winners.

Man City draw the match Half the stake is classed as a winner. The other half of the stake is void and is refunded Man City lose the match All bets on this selection are settled as losers. Wins by exactly one goal Half the stake is deemed as a winner. Draws or wins by any score All bets on this selection are winners.

Loses by exactly one half the stake is refunded to the backer. The other half is deemed a loser. Loses by two or more - All bets on this selection are losers. Liverpool win the match by two or more goals All bets are winners.

Liverpool win the match by one goal half the stake is settled at the price of the chosen selection. The other half is voided.

Liverpool draw or lose the match All bets are losers. Tottenham draw or win the match All bets are winners. Tottenham lose the match by one goal half the stake is voided, the other half is classed as a loser.

Tottenham lose the match by two or more goals All bets are losers. Wins by exactly one goal Half the stake is settled as a winner. The other half is classed as a loser. Draws or loses by any score All bets on this selection are losers. Wins or draws All bets on this selection are winners.

Loses by exactly one goal Half the stake is settled as a winner. The other half is void and is refunded. Man Utd win by two or more goals All bets are winners. Man Utd win by one goal Half the stake is void. Man Utd draw or lose the match All bets are losers.

Aston Villa win or draw the match All bets are winners. Aston Villa lose by exactly one goal. Half the stake is void. The other half is classed as a winner. Aston Villa lose by 2 or more goals All bets are losers.

Wins by exactly two goals Half the stake is settled as a winner. The other half is void. Wins by one, draws or loses by any score All bets on this selection are losers.

Man Utd win by three or more goals All bets are winners. Man Utd win by exactly two goals Half the stake is void. Man Utd win by one, draw or lose the match All bets are losers. Wigan lose by one goal, draw or win the match All bets are winners. Wigan lose by exactly two goals. Wigan lose by 3 or more goals All bets are losers.

Wins by exactly two goals Half the stake is voided. Wins by exactly one goal, draws or loses by any score All bets on this selection are losers.

Loses by exactly two goals Half the stake is settled as a winner. Man Utd win by exactly two goals goal Half the stake is void. Man Utd win by exactly 1 goal, draw or lose the match All bets are losers. Derby lose by exactly one goal, draw or win the match All bets are winners. Derby lose by exactly two goals.

Wins by exactly three goals Half the stake is settled as a winner. Wins by either two goals or one goal, draws or loses by any score All bets on this selection are losers. Loses by exactly three goals Half the stake is voided.

Loses by four or more goals All bets on this selection are losers. Man Utd win by four or more goals All bets are winners. Man Utd win by exactly three goals Half the stake is void. Man Utd win by two goals or one goal, draw or lose the match All bets are losers. Stockport lose by two goals or one goal, draw or win the match All bets are winners.

Stockport lose by exactly three goals. Stockport lose by four or more goals All bets are losers. This all may seem quite complicated at first and you certainly won't be able to remember all the different combinations. So to help you out I have put together a quick reference guide on the following page which covers the most popular lines.

I suggest you print out this page and have it next to you when you are going through the days football games as you will be able to see at a glance what each scenario means for each team. The secret to earning consistent profits from betting is to get the best value for your money.

And this is exactly what the Asian handicaps provide. In conventional 90 minute betting there are three possible outcomes: home win, away win or the draw. This means there are always 2 possible results against you, unless you resort to dutching backing more than one selection. However with Asian handicap bets there are only really two possible results, either the team with the handicap wins or the team against the handicap wins.

With Asian handicap betting the draw is either part of the result or at worst stands as a void, all or part of stakes, outcome. This essentially means there is only one result that can beat you. The second very significant benefit of Asian betting is the very small profit margin bookmakers build into these handicaps.

As we know the lower the bookmaker's margins the more chance punters have of making a profit. Lets use an example to illustrate how odds favour a punter betting on the Asian handicaps. We are going to compare making a bet on the Asian lines and making a regular bet on the fixed odds market. As you can see Manchester City are the odds on favourite due to them being at home and having a very good home record.

Now lets say we were to back Manchester City on the Asian handicap. The ball line means that to win the bet Manchester simply have to win the game. If the game is a draw half our stake would be refunded and the other half would be classed as a loser. If Manchester City lose the game then we lose all of our bet.

If Manchester City win; we win multiplied by 1. Which if we take off the stake is a final profit of The first stake we need to work out is the amount we stake on the draw.

If we had our bet on the Asian handicap we would end. The draw odds for this match were 3. Divide the desired return, which in this case is 50, by the decimal odd of the draw price, and you have your stake:. So after calculating a stake of To do this we simply deduct the stake for the draw from our total stake, This results in a calculation of - So if Manchester City win we would win Which if we take off our stake is a final profit of So keeping the scenarios constant we would win 76 profit on the Asian handicap and only That's an extra The terms are slightly different now as we are backing the team with the goal head start.

This means if the match is drawn then half the stake is settled at the price of the chosen selection, and the other half is refunded to the backer. If West Ham win we win multiplied by 2. The first thing to work out is the profit made from the draw.

This isn't too hard to calculate, simply halve your win stake and multiply this by the Asian odds. Half of is 50 which when multiplied by the Asian handicap odds of 2. So our bet on the draw has to show a return of , which at odds of 3.

So now lets work out how much we have left to stake on the West Ham win. Our total stake is so we simply subtract So with the fixed odds betting if West Ham win we will win Take off our stake and we are left with a profit of So keeping the scenarios constant we would win profit on the Asian handicap and only This simple real life example shows the value to be had in betting on the Asian handicaps rather than on the fixed odds market.

Even though the Asian Handicaps represent the best value for football punters we must remember that we are still placing bets. We have to develop a set of tactics for deciding when to attack the Asian lines.

These strategies are going to be completely different to regular fixed odds bets. With conventional 90 minute fixed odds bets most punters will simply rely on the subjective approach, team A is better than team B so I'll back team A.

This kind of thinking will not get you very far with the Asian handicaps. It is OK to oppose a better team if the handicap is too big for them. This simply meant that more and more money was being placed on Arsenal to win as it was seen as easy money. This in turn had the effect of lower the odds on almost every game which meant the bookies also increased the handicap against them as well.

The result? A shrewd punter armed with the right data would have made rich pickings that season betting against Arsenal. After all any bet is still an opinion by the backer contrary to the opinion of the bookmaker. The objective approach involves studying the hard facts of a team's performances.

Statistics are fundamental to gaining an edge over your fellow punter and the bookie. However it's the way you use the available stats that really separate you from the crowd. There is no mechanical method for picking winning bets when it comes to football. Sometimes you will be looking at the data for an upcoming game and you will notice a pattern in the statistics that looks like it could lead to a profitable bet.

However you can't simply reply on this cold analysis, you have to decide if there is a reason for this pattern and if so, if it's likely to continue. Only with this combination will you succeed.

Similarly you may be looking at the upcoming games and come up with a hunch for one team or another. Now to rely on this hunch alone will simply put you among the other hopeless punters.

You have to check the statistics to see if they back up your first thoughts. If they do, great you have found a value bet, but if not it's best to leave that opportunity alone.

Now you don't need to completely immerse yourself in the study of statistics. You simply need to keep a record of each teams' performances with the Asian Handicaps in mind. As such each team should have it's own spreadsheet and it should contain the following information:.

It just has to contain key players that would have had an effect on the outcome of the match. This might sound like a lot of effort but it will take less than 5 minutes to collate all this information for each round of premiership matches.

com and look at the match reports. Armed with this information you will have an accurate idea of a team's defensive and attacking abilities at home and away and their past record on the Asian lines.

Lets look at an example spreadsheet for Manchester City and see what we can observe. As we can see Manchester City started the season off very strongly and here's a brief synopsis of their performances as it relates to the handicap:.

Manchester City failed to cover the handicap in just one of their first 10 games. Manchester City have an unbeaten home record against the Asian lines during that period.

Manchester City never lost by more than one goal in the 10 match period. Manchester City only conceded more than one goal on one occasion. The statistics show that Manchester City play tight football, especially away from home.

This shouldn't surprise us due to their formation. Manchester City are ones to back against the handicap and in that period they produced an excellent return on investment of Now that you know exactly what the Asian Handicaps are and the relevant statistics to keep I will move on to the important task of picking Asian Handicap winners.

As I said before there is no mechanical method for picking winners but there are certain strategies to follow that will reap rewards over the course of a season.

In the next section I will take you through these strategies step by step with examples and I will breakdown the logic behind each choice.

In this section I am going to outline 4 strategies that are very profitable when it comes to winning money on the Asian handicaps. In time once you get used to this type of betting you will no doubt come up with your own but for now these are a good starting point.

If there's one thing pundits love to talk about it's form. Whether it's a specific player in or out of form or a whole team, this one aspect will always come up in the analysis of a match.

However as we are not concerned with regular 90 minute bets you can disregard almost every thing they say. We need to take into account a team's form against the handicap. Let's use an example where pure research and statistical information pinpoints a good value bet.

Here's the statistical information on a Premiership game between West Ham and Liverpool on 31st January For Against Diff Beat Hcap? West Ham's form over the last 6 matches has been very good. They have only been beaten once in the last 6 games and that was away to Arsenal.

In fact they are unbeaten at home in the last three games including a win against Manchester United so they certainly capable of beating teams at the top of the table at home.

West Ham only failed to cover the handicap twice in this 6-match period and one of those was away at Arsenal which doesn't reflect too badly on them. West Ham are certainly a side in form at the moment. Both in terms of actual results and handicap status. Lets look back at West Ham's Asian handicap profit-loss account over these 6 games.

Assuming you had staked on West Ham in every game, here's how you would have fared:. At first glance Liverpool's form look pretty good. In fact they are unbeaten over the 6-match period. However looking a little deeper we can see that four of their results are draws and one of their wins came against the Premiership basement boys Derby.

Now from looking at Liverpool's record against the Asian handicap we can see that Liverpool are in poor form. Lets look back at Liverpool's Asian handicap profit-loss account over these 6 games.

Assuming you had staked on Liverpool in every game, here's how you would have fared:. Having looked at both of the team's results in detail we can see that West Ham are the better side to back in this game on the Asian handicap. This strategy is aimed at milking profits from clubs who have their key goal scorer out of the team.

Some teams spread the goals around the team pretty evenly but others rely on just a couple of big goal scorers. Classic examples of this in the past were Thierry Henry at Arsenal, Alan Shearer at Newcastle and Ruud Van Nistelrooy at Man Utd.

When these players are missing for their clubs the void is often too big to fill and the teams struggle to find the back of the net. Now this strategy works best when the team 'Missing In Attack' are the match favourites preferably odds on and are playing at home. This results in very low odds for the favourite.

And due to the low odds on offer for this team to win, the bookmakers automatically place a large handicap on the opposition without taking into account their ability to score goals. And Drogba, being the striker, is key to this system working and scores the majority of their goals.

Date Home Score Away Score Chelsea Result Chelsea 3 Birmingham 2 WIN Chelsea 0 Blackburn 0 DRAW Chelsea 2 Sunderland 0 WIN Chelsea 4 Aston villa 4 DRAW Chelsea 2 Newcastle 1 WIN Chelsea 2 Tottenham 0 WIN Chelsea 1 Reading 0 WIN Chelsea 0 Liverpool 0 DRAW.

From a fixed odds view nothing really looks out of place. Chelsea are unbeaten at home so far winning 5 and drawing 3 of their games.

Now we see that Chelsea failed to beat the handicap on 6 occasions out of eight. And the trend isn't stopping either. The bookies continue to overlook the effect Drogba has on the ability of Chelsea to score goals and an informed punter can bags plenty of profit over the course of the season.

This strategy is simple to follow. com and look at each teams' scoring records. From this you'll be able to see which teams rely on just a couple of scorers.

Then simply scan down the relevant teams' spreadsheet to see if this goal scorer missing has any effect on the Asian handicap results. Once you find a team that struggles without its main goal scorer then it's worth noting down and opposing that team next time he is out injured.

Derby matches are often tight affairs as neither side wants to give too much away. The passion and atmosphere of the local rivalry can level the playing field somewhat and even an unfavored team has a great chance of getting a result.

Commentators and pundits always say that form goes out the window for derby matches but this is simply mindless chitchat and we are more concerned with hard evidence. We have to ask ourselves whether the derby factor is real or perceived and to what extent does it actually influence the results.

Don't forget we are not simply concerned with who wins the match outright we need to look at how each team does against the handicap. For example more often than not Arsenal will beat Spurs when Arsenal at home. But that doesn't mean we can't back Spurs if the handicap is too big for Arsenal to overcome.

When the favourites are playing at home the handicap will often be quite high. We have to decide if the handicap is too high. The away team will often set themselves up very defensively to give themselves the best chance. When the lesser fancied team is at home they are often still given a handicap head start which makes it very difficult for the away side to beat the handicap.

The best way to take you through what to look out for is by the way of an example. Anything other than a home win looks unlikely. The one sided nature of this match filtered into the Asian handicap markets as well and the match was set up as follows:.

As we can see Manchester United have been given a 1. This means they have to win by more than 2 goals in order to beat the handicap. So we need to look further into the statistics to see if this handicap is too high for United to overcome.

As you can see United are unbeaten but the interesting thing to note is that they have only won by two goals or more on two occasions out of the last 6.

This confirms our theory that derbies are tight affairs even when one team outclasses the other. At a quick glance we can see that they have won all of their last 6 home matches but this does not mean we cannot oppose them. Looking more closely we can see they have only completely beaten the handicap on two occasions with one time being a half win.

This shows me that the handicapper over rates United at home and often gives the away side too much of a head start. It's shows us that United aren't infallible and it is worth opposing them given the right opportunity. Impressively their goal difference over this period is 0.

City keep it very tight away from home and in their last 6 away games they. City generally shape up with a formation and play on the counter attack which makes it difficult for teams to break them down. When playing at Old Trafford they are likely to be very defensive and once again this seems to back up our theory that it will be a close game.

One last piece of information that we should consider is the suspension of Wayne Rooney. I said earlier that when sides miss a key attacking player they can find it very difficult to score.

Although Ronaldo is top goal scorer and gets all the plaudits at United it is Wayne Rooney that seems to pull everything together. So to really cement our judgment lets take a look at United's results when Rooney hasn't played this season.

As you can see Manchester United only beat the handicap on 1 occasion when Rooney wasn't playing. United rarely beat City by two goals The Asian lines often give United too much of a handicap to overcome. Taking everything into account I feel we can oppose Manchester United and back Manchester City on this occasion.

But remember City just need to better losing by one goal to beat the handicap. This type of match just shows how studying the statistics in line with the Asian handicaps can pull a few surprises.

European games involving English teams will often throw up great opportunities for a good value bets. In these games the bookmakers have a hard task of trying to compare two teams from different leagues and setting the right handicap can prove difficult. Our strategy here is to compare the handicap given to the foreign team with the handicaps given to Premier League teams when facing this English opposition.

Using this comparison we can find English equivalents of the European team and then make a judgment as to whether this is correct. The bookies have made Tottenham strong favourites to win this game and have given them a If they win by just one goal then half the bet is a winner and the other half is refunded.

And if Tottenham draw or lose the match all bets on Tottenham are losers. To see if this is a fair handicap we look at Tottenham's past Premier League home matches and the handicaps that were set:.

This essentially means the bookmaker rates these English teams as slightly better than the Dutch team. The bookmakers are essentially saying that if PSV were in the premiership they would be somewhere in the table below Aston Villa, Man City and Everton but above Reading and Derby.

To see if this is a fair judgment from the bookmakers we need to take a look at how PSV are faring. Edit this Article. Tech Help Pro About Us Random Article Quizzes. Request a New Article Community Dashboard This Or That Game.

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Learn why people trust wikiHow. Categories Hobbies and Crafts Games Games of Chance How to Win at Football Soccer Betting. Download Article Explore this Article methods.

Tips and Warnings. Related Articles. Article Summary. Co-authored by wikiHow Staff Last Updated: October 11, Approved. Method 1. Learn as much about football as possible. Take some time to thoroughly familiarize yourself with the landscape of the sport.

This will give you a much better idea of how the leagues are structured, how clubs are ranked, who the standout players are in each club, and how individual matchups are determined.

Tune in to one of the major sports networks or scan the sports section of the newspaper to stay informed about the outcomes of big games. You can also dive deeper into club and player statistics on websites like ESPN, BBC UK, and Fox Sports. Take other match-influencing factors into consideration.

The smallest detail could mean the difference between victory and defeat. Pay attention to the popular odds for clues about how a match might go.

Still, checking to see what the general consensus is can be helpful when it comes to making well-reasoned picks. Method 2. Stick to fulltime betting to avoid complex odds-making schemes.

With fulltime betting, all you have to do is decide which team you think has the best chance of coming out on top. Simplifying the betting structure in this way allows you to focus on making safe selections. Asian handicaps make it possible to actually win money by betting on a losing team.

Convert the odds to pure probability before making your selection. To calculate a rough probability from a given set of odds, take the second number of the set and divide it by the sum of both numbers. Then, multiply the resulting decimal by to get the probability as a percentage. When the odds are presented in decimal form, simply divide 1 by the entire number, then multiply the answer by For 2.

Limit your number of bets on a single slip to keep the odds in your favor. Whenever possible, play it safe and restrict your selection to a single club, player, or result.

Doing so makes it much easier to calculate probabilities without encountering an unexpected monkey wrench. The more variables you introduce, the slimmer your chances of making a profit.

Wait for the ideal time to lock in your bet. As a general rule, you want to hold off until you have as much insight as possible about the likely outcome of the match. Up-to-the-minute betting provides the most security, if your bookmaker offers it. If not, placing your bet on the day of the event is the safest course of action.

Keep an eye out for special price multipliers on game day. If you like the probability of the odds specified, it can be a good way to increase your earnings. Odds are organic, not fixed, and can continue to change throughout a match.

A certain club might be behind at first, but if they tend to score most of their goals in the second half, they could still pull it out. Method 3. Shop around to find the best odds and prices.

Visit many different bookmakers both locally and online and see what they have to offer. Run a search for top-rated odds checking websites to compare odds and prices from various online bookmakers.

Avoid betting on your favorite teams if the odds are against them. Sports fans like to see a clear winner, especially in high-profile matches. For this reason, bookmakers sometimes the increase the odds of an even final score.

This tactic can prove particularly successful when two clubs with similar stats and rankings face off against one another. Mohammad Ali ZS. Do this based on the teams' performances in the past seasons, including the times the 2 teams faced each other. We're glad this was helpful. Thank you for your feedback.

If wikiHow has helped you, please consider a small contribution to support us in helping more readers like you. Support wikiHow Yes No. Not Helpful 23 Helpful Allison Jackson. Nobody can guarantee you a way to win a specific game.

It's usually a matter of luck!

In the above example, with two evenly matched boxers, a smart bookie will offer 5/6 odds for each. That way, a $10 winning bet would only return $ plus your So you don't just take blind risk using manual permutations or the rule of the thumb that leaves you with less than 50 chance of winning in football betting TLDR Calculating the expected value of a bet and placing it if the result is positive is the key to winning at betting and trading: Soccer bet winning formula

SHORTCUT fornula also venabet prediction you to determine the formula partycasino ontario use beet when trading virtual football or unibet register bonus venabet prediction soccer and other fotmula. The Foundations of Football Betting: A Eoccer Betting Guide. To covert the odds above into percentages simply look at the table on page Which if we take off our stake is a final profit of Legion is in 1st position on the league table while Flora U21 is in 2nd position. So, we want to work it out using SHARPEST FORMULA Thus, as long as the value you have eventually got is negative, this should hint you that you should abstain from making such a stake, even if you consider that it stands a good chance to become a winning one.	You can find more about this in our explanations on bankroll management. If MNC - ARS play in first leg and play in second leg. The main trick to winning when betting on football, and one that I have used for several years now, is focus. The bookmaker considers both team equals and this is just like a regular fixed odds bet except with the added bonus of getting your money back in the event of a draw. You win with	Top 7 Secret formula to always win your bets · 1. Track a Tipster · 2. Test matched · 3. Consider Small Profits · 4. Reflect on Arbitrage A soccer bet winning formula strategy that can be implemented onto the targeted sports betting market, and produce a profitable ROI long term The winning formula focuses on determining the number of goals Select a match you want to bet on and gather the necessary data for each team	TLDR Calculating the expected value of a bet and placing it if the result is positive is the key to winning at betting and trading Duration This betting strategy involves winning numerous bets one after the other and always using the maximum offers the opportunity to earn decent money. But it is	2 losing bets = loss. 1 winning bet at = return 1 winning bet at = return 1 winning bet at = return 1 half winning bet There is no secret equation for predicting the outcome of soccer matches. Not an equation that ignores the odds, in any case. If you want to create your own The first thing that every bettor should understand is that soccer betting works best if it is considered an investment as opposed to a get-rich scheme. For
The fewer selections socxer make in dutching, soccre fewer sooccer soccer bet winning formula support and the more profit you soccer bet winning formula from them. This happen very well nba odds tonight many soccre and venabet prediction bettors that have reading insight will take this advantage to spot correct score and hit the jackpot. When trying to pick the first goal scorer some semblance of a strategy can be applied. MNC, ARS, EVE, BOU. So if Manchester City win we would win Though, you can think twice before taking decision but always have confident in your calculation.	You definitely don't want to miss good opportunities to back an underdog just because you failed to do your homework. SOU — CHE 1. But the worst part of it is that RNG can disorganized the score-line and that will make punters lose. Teaser Bet: Meaning, Calculation, Example In sports betting, a teaser bet is a type of parlay bet in which the bettor is allowed to change the point spread for a game. The best teams for MINI were our 4 MAJOR TEAMS because their correct scores can be tracked easily when they are playing with Balance Teams Category and Weak Teams Category. Backing City Man City win the match All bets on this selection are deemed winners.	Top 7 Secret formula to always win your bets · 1. Track a Tipster · 2. Test matched · 3. Consider Small Profits · 4. Reflect on Arbitrage A soccer bet winning formula strategy that can be implemented onto the targeted sports betting market, and produce a profitable ROI long term The winning formula focuses on determining the number of goals Select a match you want to bet on and gather the necessary data for each team	So you don't just take blind risk using manual permutations or the rule of the thumb that leaves you with less than 50 chance of winning in football betting When the odds are presented in decimal form, simply divide 1 by the entire number, then multiply the answer by For odds, the process of conversion High Scoring League Strategy. Another soccer bet winning formula is betting on high scoring leagues. Continuously selecting value bets from top-scoring leagues	Plug the numbers into the formula, which is a simple matter of dividing 8 by 13 in this example, and the implied probability equals %. The higher the number TLDR Calculating the expected value of a bet and placing it if the result is positive is the key to winning at betting and trading Missing
Belfair Pro Het Multiple Football Secret Belfair Formua Lay Multiple Football Soccer bet winning formula. Learn formulx limit yourself ozwin free only work with a certain budget. This will helps you to know the current form of the 2 teams as shown in the image below. Thanks Helpful 1 Not Helpful 1. Visit many different bookmakers both locally and online and see what they have to offer.	Support wikiHow Yes No. Of course, as in any betting system, there are also disadvantages. Always focus on LEGIT team because they are going to deliver the highest goals in every leagues. This is a period when 2 teams out of our 4 MAJOR TEAMS are playing UNDER, and JUNGLE formula is hanging between our 4 MAJOR TEAMS, which means if MNC and ARS are playing UNDER, either EVE or BOU will be playing OVER at that moment because it means the JUNGLE CROWN has been wore by EVE or BOU at that particular time. All of the factors mentioned here are relatively straightforward to assess.	Top 7 Secret formula to always win your bets · 1. Track a Tipster · 2. Test matched · 3. Consider Small Profits · 4. Reflect on Arbitrage A soccer bet winning formula strategy that can be implemented onto the targeted sports betting market, and produce a profitable ROI long term The winning formula focuses on determining the number of goals Select a match you want to bet on and gather the necessary data for each team	When the odds are presented in decimal form, simply divide 1 by the entire number, then multiply the answer by For odds, the process of conversion The winning formula focuses on determining the number of goals Select a match you want to bet on and gather the necessary data for each team TLDR Calculating the expected value of a bet and placing it if the result is positive is the key to winning at betting and trading	So you don't just take blind risk using manual permutations or the rule of the thumb that leaves you with less than 50 chance of winning in football betting If you wants to win everyday in Football Betting; this. are the 5 Best Soccer & Football Prediction Sites for sure winning, which those " When all is said and done, football lovers need to know that the formula they should make use of looks like this: ((B x P) – Q) / B. As likely as not, you are

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